1. The standard bull-bear cycle

Since 2011, Bitcoin bulls and bears have been very standard forms, including:

江卓尔:我们正处于一轮非典型性牛市中

a. The bulls and the bears are distinct and last for a long time. When it rises, it has been rising continuously (but there will be a 40% short crash in the middle), and it has been falling when it falls.

b. A four-year halving cycle corresponds to a big bull-bear cycle. Especially in 2017, its trend perfectly reproduced the trend of the second half of 2013, which made a lot of money for the party who wanted to make a boat and seek the sword to make a lot of money. This is also the fundamental source of MA 120-day/200-day bull-bear boundary theory.

2. The “atypical” bull market in this round

Compared with the previous typical bull-bear cycle, this round of bull market is somewhat “atypical”. Although the fundamental law of “starting a violent bull market after halving” remains unchanged, but:

江卓尔:我们正处于一轮非典型性牛市中

a. According to the four-year cycle theory, the bear market in 2018 is the bear market in 2014, and the distance from the lowest point is almost halved (543 days vs. 507 days), a perfect replication cycle. Then, 2019 should be 2015, with the bottom sideways for a year. But in fact, from April to June in 2019, there was a small bull market that rose 3.4 times ($4133 to $13880) in three months.

b. On March 12, 2020, there was another 312 flash crash that had not occurred in history. From February 13th $10500 to March 13th $3850, it fell by 63% in one month, and fell sharply below the MA120 days and For 200 days, especially from 8 o’clock on March 12th to 8 o’clock on 13th, it fell by 52% ($7970 to $3850) within 24 hours. According to historical law, a 63% drop is a proper bear market, right? There was no result. In less than 2 months, it rose back to $10074 on May 7.

c. After the start of the 2021 halving bull market, according to the law of 2013 and 2017, there should be multiple 40% callbacks when rising, but there are only multiple 20% callbacks, and the maximum callback is only 30%.

d. After almost no correction from $10,000 to $65,000, there was another 54% drop ($**843 to $30066) caused by 519 (high leverage serial liquidation) & 521 (policy blow). It is a superposition of 94 (policy strike) + 312 (high-leverage serial liquidation).

3. Reasons for atypical bull market

To explain these atypicals, the 2019 Mavericks market can be explained as a result of plustoken, 312 can be explained as a high-leverage serial liquidation caused by the development of financial derivatives, and the non-reduction of $10,000 to $65,000 can be explained by institutions such as Grayscale, Tesla, etc. Investors bought aggressively.

But in short, so many atypicals indicate that we are in an atypical bull market, and there is no longer a clear distinction between bulls and bears (after 312 fell by 63%, the bulls are still there?).

4. Can I still carve a boat for a sword?

Since there is no longer a completely duplicated historical experience, what else is permanent and unchanging? There are only mathematical laws. Mathematical laws require very few assumptions. For example, the cumulative gains in the 60-day period, only assuming that the bull market of Bitcoin is caused by the addition of a large number of newcomers and new funds (this assumes that this is still the case in this round of bull market, whether it is European and American institutional funds or animal currency A large number of ordinary people joined, similar to the previous round of bull market).

In the final stage of the bull market, market sentiment was frenzied, market participants ran out of funds and leverage, the currency price rose sharply in a short time, and the speed of newcomers and new funds entering the market could not keep up with the short-term skyrocketing of the currency price, making the currency price insufficient to buy With financial support, it collapsed from a height with a lot of potential energy, and the bull market ended.

V. 60-day cumulative increase index

This process is described in mathematical language, that is, the “60-day cumulative increase” is too high. 60-day cumulative gain = add up the gains of the past 60 days day by day.

In the backtest of historical data, the “60-day cumulative gain” indicator showed perfect consistency:

a. The hottest market sentiment = the highest point of currency price = the highest point of cumulative increase in 60 days, not bad in one day

b. The top K-line is sharp, not flat, because the most enthusiastic market sentiment is a point, not a period of time.

江卓尔:我们正处于一轮非典型性牛市中

However, the previous high of $**895 on April 13 did not conform to this rule. There was a 51-day difference between the highest price increase on the 60th and the highest currency price. The performance on the K-line is not a sharp top, but an arc top, from the top of the arc that has appeared.

江卓尔:我们正处于一轮非典型性牛市中

This also made a large number of Amber old people feel that the bull market is not over yet, “How can the bull market be over before the frenzy of the demons dances?”

Six, more reliable mathematical laws

Compared with historical experience, the laws of mathematics are more reliable and unbreakable. Therefore, we are still in a long bull market. We are likely to be in a round of 312 crash (3 months later, in July 2021, it broke the previous high). The worst-case scenario is a short bear in a double-top bull market in 2013 (7 months later, it broke the previous high in November 2021) and will not face a long bear market.

Why not face a long bear market? Because there has not been a wave of extreme fanaticism before squeezing out funds and hitting many military forces, it will not face a long bear market.

If China’s crackdown on trading & mining is not severe in the future, $30,000 may already be the lowest point (similar to 312, the instantaneous oversold low point caused by a series of liquidation, and there is a long-term support in the area of ​​30,000 before the New Year). The crackdown is severe, and the lowest point may be at $25,000 (down 63% according to the 312 convention). The short-term currency price is unpredictable, but in short

The bull market is still there:)