Editor’s note

In 2021, amber will be the hottest item. From Bitcoin, to Dogecoin, and then to SHI coin, one after another, they went out of the circle. Earlier, Musk suspended Bitcoin’s purchase of Tesla. Later, the three major financial industry associations jointly voiced the resistance to virtual currency speculation. Last night, Amber experienced a night of panic, and the cryptocurrency plummeted. Bitcoin plummeted by 30%, reaching US$30,000. After the pass, it rebounded violently, once it rose above 42,000 U.S. dollars, the rebound rate was as high as 40%, and then it fluctuated back down, hovering around 38,000 U.S. dollars. The market value has evaporated by hundreds of billions of dollars, the exchange is down, and more than 460,000 people have lost their positions. The whole process is very thrilling. Amber investors sleepless night.

At the beginning of April, Bitcoin broke through 60,000 and hit a new high. Many people commented on Bitcoin. Dean Guan also used two videos to explain the logic of Bitcoin investment to everyone. He reminded that the investment risk of cryptocurrency is extremely high, volatility and The drawdown is huge, and Bitcoin is not suitable for ordinary investors.

From the perspective of yield alone, Bitcoin has completely exploded in A shares, but there are also many listed companies outperforming Bitcoin

We made a comparison between Bitcoin and A-share listed companies. It can be seen in several time periods.

From 2013 to April 2, 2021, Bitcoin soared 4638 times, staged a vigorous wealth creation myth. There is a premise here that the original price of Bitcoin is very low. I knew a person who couldn’t find a job at home and was unemployed to mine at home. He digs a lot of bitcoins. Now he has bought an island in the Pacific Ocean. Among the A-share stocks, the largest gainer was the “carbon neutral” leader-Longji shares, with a cumulative increase of about 63 times; Oriental Fortune and Yiwei Lithium Energy both increased by more than 50 times, 59 times and 53 times respectively; A-share market Since 2013, only 20 stocks have risen more than 20 times.

又见比特币闪崩,要去抄底吗?

From 2018 to April 2, 2021, Bitcoin has risen more than three times cumulatively, slinging 98% of A-share listed companies. Bitcoin was gradually recognized by the mainstream market around 2018. Since 2018, Bitcoin has risen 3.39 times cumulatively, and the trend can be described as ups and downs: In 2018, due to the tightening of supervision, it once plunged by 80%; it was high and low before and after 2019, quickly repaired in the first half of the year, and a sharp correction in the second half of the year. 94%; In 2020 and 2021, due to the global water release, Bitcoin soared by 304% and 110% respectively. During the period, 73 of the A-share listed companies outperformed Bitcoin. If excluding the new stocks listed during the period, a total of 42 stocks rose more than Bitcoin. Among them, Ingram Medical (887%) and Opcom (864 %), Yasui Foods (829%), Bairun shares (802%).

又见比特币闪崩,要去抄底吗?

From the beginning of 2021 to April 2nd, MMT can’t stop at all in the post-epidemic era, and Bitcoin is going crazy again. The external flood was so great that Bitcoin broke through $60,000 and hit a record high, with an increase of 110%. The marginal tightening of domestic monetary policy has resulted in significant adjustments in A-shares. Only 9 A-share listed companies have risen more than Bitcoin, of which 7 are new stocks this year, and the remaining 2 are ST.

又见比特币闪崩,要去抄底吗?

But considering the huge volatility, Bitcoin is not the first choice for investment and is not suitable for everyone

Under the risk of global central bank releases and dollar inflation, Bitcoin’s 21 million fixed attributes are considered by major institutions to be digital gold against inflation risks. However, for most ordinary investors, Bitcoin is not a good investment choice.

There are only two types of people who can really make a lot of money on Bitcoin:

One is the believers of Bitcoin. They believe in blockchain technology and Satoshi Nakamoto. They firmly believe that decentralized digital currency will shake the existing international monetary system.

The second type is Bitcoin speculators. They realized the speculative significance of Bitcoin, endured violent fluctuations at various key points in time, and finally earned this income. But generally speaking, these two kinds of people are very few. I don’t make any comments on Bitcoin, because everyone has a different view of this new thing.

But from the perspective of ordinary investors, such an investment subject with huge volatility and obvious heading is not suitable for someone. Investors still have to recognize their own positioning and choose a subject that matches their own circumstances to invest.

If you really want to buy the bottom of Bitcoin, think about these four questions first

After the crash, many people asked whether they could buy the bottom, and first recognize these four issues before making a decision:

One is value. Belief is very important. The investment logic of Bitcoin and diamonds and art is somewhat similar. Some people are very obsessed with it, and some scoff at it.

The second is volatility. First of all, we must consider whether it can withstand the huge fluctuations. The skyrocketing and falling is the normal state of Bitcoin. Since 2015, Bitcoin has fallen by more than 15% in a single day 8 times. Last March, when the epidemic was at its worst, it plummeted by 37% in one day. It is not surprising that the 30% flash crash yesterday was not surprising. In 2018, it fell from 20,000 to 3,000, which was a decline of more than 80% in one year.

The third is liquidity. 2% of the accounts control 95% of the bitcoins, and a large number of bitcoins are concentrated in the hands of a few people, and the liquidity is not good, and the situation that the exchanges can not be sold out of downtime occurs frequently.

The fourth is jet lag. Bitcoin’s skyrocketing and falling prices usually occur late at night. It is true that money never sleeps. If you can’t watch the market late at night, you may accidentally ride a roller coaster.